…Says APC To Win Without Run-off
…Shows LP, NNPP Will Spoil PDP’s Votes In Key Areas
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has been tipped to win the 2023 presidential election.
While Tinubu is predicted to win the election, the Peoples Democratic Party will emerge second, according to a survey conducted by an independent body, ARPM
The ARPM, which has been a historical tool for predicting the nation’s elections since 2003 has 93% to 98% correlation, region by region, with the final results announced by INEC.
The poll result showed that 2023 election cycle would come with its own peculiarities, including the participation of two minor parties with regional base, eating deep into the votes of one of the majority party (PDP) or sucking new voter registrants (LP and NNPP) while putting a majority party at risk (APC).
It also predicted that the ruling party would record a comfortable lead among voters and likely emerge victorious with majority short of 50% of total votes tallied.
ARPM said the 2023 Nigeria General Elections prediction reveals that for the first time since 2007, APC support in the Northwest will erode to 41.72% from as high as 80% in 2015 and 72% in 2019
Part of the report read, “The PDP is seemingly gaining grounds on the APC in the Northwest, winning three of the seven states and have a good head start in North East and South East.
“There ends the good news for the opposition party, as both the same North West and South East also have significant third party candidates in NNPP and Labour Party, which decisively cuts into her potential vote harvest especially from the APC stronghold of Northwest Nigeria.
“The APC despite its seeming weakness in Northwest, is emerging as a strong player in the South South which is projected to increase turnout in 2023 from about 28% to 35% on the back of rapid cross carpeting in favour of the ruling party.”
“Speaking about turn out, it stated that “PDP’s weakest point is that it is only over performing in regions where turnout is expected to tumble -especially the Northwest and South East.
“On the other hand, with APC over performing in the South West and South South, where turnout is expected to outpace 2019, this creates a significant advantage going into 2023 polls.
“The North Central remain bellwether for APC despite incursions by the Labour Party which seemingly divides PDP votes and accounts for the more than 4 million astray votes difference from third party candidate norm compared to 2019 in the final results.
“However, that loss did not seem to be PDP’s gain, whose position despite improvement stagnated at 35% in a depleted electorate as a result of widespread voter apathy in the region compared to the Buhari years.
” In the Southwest, the APC marginally improved to 58% from 54% but will secure significantly more votes (the highest of all regions) from 2 million in 2019 to 3.6 million netting off any loss in North West.
” In the North Central, APC drops to 46% in proportion of votes from 54% but it was the other parties that harvested the discontent not the PDP as the PDP’s 2 million votes barely budged while APC actually nudged more voters in pure numbers.
“The same pattern repeated itself in the North East where APC on the back of strong performance in Borno and Yobe is predicted to still steal the show from the PDP despite it being the home base of its candidate.
“Recall that Buhari beat Atiku in the region 72% to 27% in 2019. This is because Taraba and Adamawa the home base of the PDP in the region are lightly populated comparatively and APC’s local candidates in the region seem to be quite strong.
“South East will remain marginally poor for APC, but It is the other party, Labour Party especially that is predicted to shine in this region even as APC is billed to win in South South for the first time since 1999.
“The model sensitivity however predicts that there is still a 50/50 chance that South South will be lost by APC but only insignificantly.”