Michael Abiodun Oni
Department of Political Science and Public,
Babcock University,
Ilishan Remo,
Ogun State.
Some Nigerians are yet to come to term with the reality that Bola Ahmead Tinubu won the last presidential election in Nigeria.In fact, a month after the election and declaration of the former governor of Lagos as the president elect, some of these people are yet to believe that God’s will is greater than human thinking, logic and imagination.They are of the opinion, which they are entitled to, that the election was rigged. Both the constitutive and operational definitions of the rigging have not been clearly delineated by them than the results were not uploaded on server as promised. This is why people like us who saw the victory of Tinubu at the election and participated in the election find it difficult to believe the rigging thesis.
I have been consistently part of electoral politics since 1979, and could tell you what constitutes operational definition of rigging. As part of the electoral politics for years and an advocate of electoral sanity, l was able to harvest and document the nature and character of electoral frauds in Nigeria. These were the basis of my inaugural lecture on March 5, 2021. None of the indicators for measuring rigged/ fraudulent election was present in 2023 presidential election. The only fraud in the election was vote buying. All the parties were guilty and not only the ruling party.
Electoral frauds are in three stages: pre, during and after the election. l would not wish to bore my readers down here, a copy of my Inaugural lecture contains these stages and the nature at each stage. I have come out now to say something as someone who knows something about something and not to allow people who know little or nothing about a subject matter to mislead others. I was not around in the First Republic but witnessed what is known as rigging in the Second Republic and there after. That is same in other elections.
However, it is paradoxical to pontificate that because INEC did not upload the result on its server as promised was a rigging. Thus, many people do not know what rigging stands for. A rigging would only be established if the manual results at the units, wards, local government, state and federal levels are at variance with what are available on the INEC server. Let us wait for the variance. l am, however, sure that if such is available, the Dino Melaye and Akin Osuntokun of this world would have blown it out of proportion.
I am writing as someone whose entire academic life is devoted to elections and electoral management and not as an agent of either Tinubu or the INEC. The INEC officials who attended my inaugural lecture were not happy with me at the level of my exposition of the Commission’s partnership in electoral fraud in Nigeria. I do not know Tinubu either. I am only doing what l know to do.
That these group of Nigerians who have not witnessed what rigging is, are of the position that Peter Obi won the election and not Bola Tinubu. Not many people are looking towards Abubakar Atiku, the man who came second at the election. Consequent on the above disbelieve on the part of these Nigerians who have not seen rigging, efforts are being made to discredit the outcome of the both the presidential election and the winner of the election, Bola Ahmead Tinubu.
In furtherance of these attempts to discredit the election and the winner, there have been gang-ups to organise protests and and in the extreme, calls for the military takeover and imposition of an interim government.
In all sincerity, only a few people who believe that there is nothing that is impossible for God to do, will think that Bola Tinubu will ever win the election. These people were both right and wrong. Right because the facts on the ground were not in favour of Asiwaju. Wrong because there is impossibility in the dictionary of God.
Before and on the day of the election, Bola Tinubu’s antagonists went into the election with unshaken believe that he would lose.This was based on human thinking and logic and logical deduction which were visible to the eyes to see.
Ordinarily, based on optimism of those who were not well-informed about Nigerian politics and elections, one would be tempted to join the bandwagon that Tinubu could never win the election, not to even imagine of being declared as the winner.
Some of the likelihood premises that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s failure at the election were predicated upon, but not limited to are highlighted below.
First, the alleged role in the ‘End Sars’ protest. Many were of the opinion that, he was actually behind Sanwo Olu’s directives to invite both the military and police to take over the protest.That, those who died through the directives could indirectly be linked to Tinubu.To them, the election would be the period that Nigerian youth would punish him by voting for the opposition.
Second, the prolonged ASUU strike and closure of the Nigerian universities for eight months would make it difficult for the candidate of the ruling party to win the election. The thinking which appears to right was that, ASUU members, parents and students would take their pound of flesh at the election by voting against the candidate of the ruling party, Bola Tinubu. It is hence illogical to think that the ruling party would survive at the end of 2023 General Elections.
Third, that there are several other allegations against him. These include drug trafficking, age and certificate forgery, corrupt practices and poor health status. All these were meant to de-market him and render him unsellable to Nigerian electorate. Yet, he won.
Fourth, the withdrawal of support for Asiwaju by the people, that many see as the mouth piece of the Yorubas, the likes of Olusegun Obasanjo, Papa Ayo Adebanjo, Bode George. These people did not only see distancing themselves from him, but also were rigorously campaigning for opposition candidate, Peter Obi.
Fifth, that Asiwaju’s presidential ambition had ab initio suffered a set back or that could ever thought to be possible was the decision of the party to field Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidential election. This was seen as daring and effontery in a country where religion is everything and everything is religion. The Christian brethrens were angered.They threatened and promised to shame APC for the religious marginalisation. No doubt, they actually carried out their plans. Yet Asiwaju won.
What l would not know and able to confirm is, if the plans of the christians included the barrage of false prophecies about his victory that failed. Not many Prophets gave the election to Tinubu. In fact, if you were not yourself or on the fence, you will have no option than to vote against Tinubu because of these false Prophets and Pastors. Many had predicted he could not win.
Sixth, the role of those who claim to be research experts and agencies cannot be ignored. Most of the online researches conducted by these researchers gave victory of 2023 presidential election to Peter Obi, few to Atiku and paltry of them, to Tinubu. Yet, Tinubu won.
Seventh, APC as the ruling party did not help matters.The cashless policy was enough to ruin Tinubu’s chances at the election. The scarcity of petroleum towards the election should have been disastrous for the candidature of Asiwaju.Yet, he won.
Lastly, there was an allegation of cabalism in government to frustrate and prevent Tinubu’s emergence at the poll. Thus, many were of the opinion that APC would fail at the election because his party’s suicidal policy and other aforementioned shortcomings, among others, not mentioned here are enough to foreclose the emergence of APC and its candidate, Bola Ahmead Tinubu in 2023 presidential election.Yet he won.
It was in the midst of these disillusionment that few others and l came up with the thesis, through our analyses that Asiwaju Tinubu would win the election. Our thesis was informed by history, logic and experience of the Nigerian politics and elections. We were able to justify our position on why the former governor of Lagos state would win the presidential election.
Our position and explanations that Tinubu would win the election and did not say may win the presidential election angered many people. I have never been so assaulted and insulted in my academic life. These attacks were from both the expected and unexpected quarters. The unexpected quarters were people who have nothing to do with politics and political science. Yes, to those people, you can understand their ignorance and overlook. Some of the feedbacks from these none professional platforms were: it is a wishful thinking. That is Professor Oni’ s wish and thinking. Professor is not known not to be a liar, but for this one, he has lied.
From the professional platforms, these were some of the reactions. How do you think the Hausa people would relinquish power to the South? lt is a mission impossible. When those in academic decided to join politics, how would they see well? These were few disbeliefs that greeted my prediction of Asiwaju’s victory in 2023 presidential election.
At the end of the day, Bola Tinubu won with wide margin. An American journalist who interviewed me at the declaration of result said that some of American lawyers were of the position that Asiwaju did not win the election because he did not have majority of the total votes cast at the election. l, however, educated the American journalist that this was our own democracy and not American democracy. Without having the majority of the votes cast, but a simple majority, a candidate could still and Tinubu won.
My submission here is that if with all these inhibiting factors thought to be capable of preventing him from winning the election and yet he won, my thinking is that, if there was hands of God in the election that make mockery of false prophets, fraudulent researches and so on. I strongly believe that, it was God, who wanted Tinubu for a purpose. The emergence is the will of God and not of man.
If there is going to be any disagreements among the judges at the levels of trial of the election petition against him, it will be only be about the status of FCT. Let me leave lawyers to do their jobs. I am taking this position because of my experience as a Christian teacher over 20 years. We believe in the power of God.
Note that, reader should not confuse presidential election with governorship election.
maabino@yahoo.com
08036147947.